November 1, 2024Comment(115)

Natural Gas Set for Sustained Rise

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In recent trading sessions, American energy stocks have shown significant upward momentum, capturing the attention of investors and analysts alikeSpecifically, EQT Corporation and Devon Energy have witnessed notable rises, with EQT's stock escalating by 3.45% to $52.44 and Devon's by 3.36% to $38.43. This shift in value comes on the heels of an upgrade in investment ratings by Bernstein, a well-known Wall Street investment firm, which has moved both companies from a 'market perform' rating to 'outperform.' Bernstein’s analysts have touted a forthcoming 'supercycle' in natural gas, projecting target prices of $73 for EQT and $45 for Devon as the market heats up.

The rationale behind these optimistic forecasts stems from a confluence of factorsAnalysts predict that the combination of colder weather patterns this year and robust demand from Europe and Asia will plunge the natural gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) markets into a state of supply constraint

This trend, coupled with surging energy requirements from data centers, is expected to propel natural gas trading prices past $5 per thousand cubic feet in the near futureAs of now, natural gas futures linger around $4 per million British thermal units, reflecting a pivotal moment in the energy market landscape.

Bob Brackett, leading Bernstein’s research team, identifies EQT as a top pick in the natural gas sector due to its significant leverage on natural gas pricesMeanwhile, he notes that although Devon Energy does not have exposure to international natural gas markets, its substantial domestic operations present a strong growth trajectoryUnlike APA Corporation and EOG Resources, which have strategically diversified their natural gas price exposure, Brackett emphasizes that the current preference for focusing on risk allocation towards the Henry Hub provides a unique advantage.

Looking ahead, Bernstein's analysts forecast a significant expansion in project-approved LNG export capabilities from 2024 to 2030, asserting that demand for natural gas—especially considering its clean and efficient properties—will rise substantially, with estimates suggesting a necessity of at least 12 billion cubic feet per day

This expectation is fueled in part by the burgeoning energy requirements brought forth by global advancements in artificial intelligence, which are projected to intensify the need for clean energy resources.

Since the onset of winter in December, European gas prices have soared under the strain of demand pressures and inventory concernsThe recent cold snap in Northwestern Europe has further exacerbated the pressure on gas inventories, leading to dramatic spikes in futures prices, such as the Dutch TTF gas futures surging to levels not seen since late 2023. This volatility underscores the fragile state of the European energy market, particularly in the face of potential disruptions.

Concurrently, with the cessation of Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe since January 2025, American LNG is stepping in to fill the void within the European supply chainThis shift introduces a layer of uncertainty for U.S

domestic natural gas supplies as well as LNG-dependent Asian marketsAnalysts suggest that the rising trajectory of European gas prices, driven by demand from Asia, may continue upward in the near future as global LNG prices follow suit.

Since the near-complete disruption of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe in 2022, the continent has significantly increased its reliance on LNG, transporting it across global waters using specialized carriersEven though new LNG supply is forecast to grow consistently through 2025, Europe and Asia’s sustained high demand for LNG will likely continue to support elevated pricesThis scenario is particularly critical in light of ongoing energy transition and decarbonization policies that aim to promote cleaner energy sourcesNatural gas, with its dual property of being both efficient and clean, plays a vital role as a transitional energy source, reinforcing its importance in the global energy mix.

Moreover, analysts highlight the increasing role of artificial intelligence in driving LNG demand

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Major industry players such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon Web Services have escalated their demand for clean energy sources, including natural gas, amidst a global movement toward decarbonization, notably in developed European nationsAs focus intensifies on renewable energy sources like wind and geothermal, alongside the clean and efficient attributes of natural gas, the coming years are poised to see it become a cornerstone of data center power systems.

Adding to this dynamic landscape, Venture Global Inc., a prominent LNG player based in Arlington, Virginia, is set to raise $2.3 billion through an initial public offering, which stands to be the largest IPO by an American energy company since 2013. As LNG is anticipated to become an increasingly significant segment in the global energy narrative, the United States, the largest LNG supplier worldwide, is poised to bolster its stature amidst a global shift towards cleaner energy alternatives.

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